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Showing posts from July, 2010

Why Karzai can’t risk annoy Pakistan? By Jan Assakzai

http://www.thefrontierpost. com/News.aspx?ncat=ar&nid=1352 The classified documents released by the organisation, WikiLeaks, has provided fresh ammunition to hawks in the Afghan government urging the US to come hard on Pakistan for its support to the Afghan Taliban. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has reportedly asked his officials to study the WikiLeaks. Afghanistan’s National Security Council said the United States had failed to attack the patrons and supporters of the Taliban hiding in Pakistan throughout the nine-year conflict. But despite some critical voices, the leaks dismissed by the US administration as "old hat" are unlikely to force Karzai to adopt a more hawkish stance against Pakistan. Hamid Karzai is perhaps one of the Afghan leaders of current generation who has realised the inherently weak geo-political standing of Afghanistan in the region and the constraints the US and Kabul are working under when it comes to dealing with Pakistan. Karzai already transf...

Iran: A spoiler or saviour in Afghanistan? By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 26) The Kabul Conference paved way for the need to seek deeper regional cooperation in bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan. Particularly the role of neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Iran and India have become all the most crucial to the US effort to successfully complete its draw down by 2014 and leave behind a relatively stable government. Iran has most levers in Afghanistan after Pakistan. For Iran, Afghanistan has always been important and its value grew manifold when the US-led coalition launched attack on the Taliban regime in 2001. This is why it has maintained an effective leverage in the country. From Tehran’s point of view, Afghanistan’s western part constitutes its "near abroad". In other words, Afghanistan’s western area falls within Iran’s sphere of influence.Tehran has focused extensively on Herat, Farah and Nimruz for its economic, social and educational efforts. Iran recently held a high profile cultural conferen...

Regionalising fight against terrorism fails. By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post, July 24) The Kabul Conference was watershed moment in the effort of the US and its allies to defeat terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan what is called Af-Pak region. The Conference marked further deepening of the regionalisation of the US effort to combat terrorism. But the US policy of regionally defeating terrorism has failed in Af-Pak region. The ragionalisation of the fight against terrorism i.e. involving the cooperation of regional/host countries has so far created positive results in other parts of the world. Particularly, it has seen a steady progress in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia, while in Yemen the authorities are struggling to contain the al-Qaeda movement with the US help. But the jury is still out on Somalia. As far as Af-Pak region is concerned, the overriding aim of the US effort was to defeat terrorism that emanated from this region spearheaded by al-Qaeda and its allies, the Taliban. But over the last couple of years, the US has sca...

Regionalising fight against terrorism fails By Jan Assakzai

http://www.thefrontierpost. com/News.aspx?ncat=ar&nid=1321 The Kabul Conference was watershed moment in the effort of the US and its allies to defeat terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan what is called Af-Pak region. The Conference marked further deepening of the regionalisation of the US effort to combat terrorism. But the US policy of regionally defeating terrorism has failed in Af-Pak region. The ragionalisation of the fight against terrorism i.e. involving the cooperation of regional/host countries has so far created positive results in other parts of the world. Particularly, it has seen a steady progress in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia, while in Yemen the authorities are struggling to contain the al-Qaeda movement with the US help. But the jury is still out on Somalia. As far as Af-Pak region is concerned, the overriding aim of the US effort was to defeat terrorism that emanated from this region spearheaded by al-Qaeda and its allies, the Taliban. But over the last coup...

Afghanistan: Substantial US withdrawal slips to 2014. By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post, July 23) The international Conference in Kabul was perhaps the first international gathering of high profile foreign dignitaries that was prepared and organised by Afghans themselves. The security of the conference was ensured by Afghan security forces showing their ability to host such a mega event on Afghan soil. Interestingly, the conference itself was notable for focusing more on the time frame for readiness of Afghan security forces than on the US draw down deadline of 2011. Reading between the lines, the conference scaled down all the talk of perceived unceremonious US withdrawal by 2011, rendering it to a more symbolic beginning of the draw down process than substantive withdrawal. Some observers even went as far as to say that the US withdrawal of 2011 effectively slipped to 2014. However, the caveat for the qualification of this assertion is that substantial withdrawal will definitely have to wait behind 2011 and 2012. Another development at ...

Kabul Conference: A chance to fine tune US strategy: By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 21) The Kabul Conference is precursor to certain new signs of movements in the US effort in Afghanistan. Though they could not be depicted as policy shift as yet when it comes to the US strategy and its drawdown deadline. The US administration is in hurry to see signs of progress in Afghanistan so that it can conclude its withdrawal smoothly. There are few signs, however. The Republicans have come hard on the Obama administration that it is not fully committed to Afghanistan project and that its drawndown timetable is more driven by 2012 presidential elections than the progress on the ground. They believe that the deadline is tantamount to handing over a victory to the Taliban in a plate. They also contend that the Obama Administration should recalibrate drawdown deadline. The Iraqi withdrawal is all poised to start in days and there are plans that around 50,000 troops might stay behind and if needed they can play a combat role as well. Pentagon is increasing...

Pakistan accepts Karzai as post-US Afghan leader? By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 20) Pakistan has not been a great admirer of President Karzai during most of his two tenures as President of Afghanistan. Of late, Pakistan seems to have increased coordination with Karzai. Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, the head of the Pakistani army, and Inter-Services Intellgence (ISI) agency chief Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja Pasha have regularly been visiting Kabul and reportedly met with Karzai in the last couple of weeks. They visited Kabul again on June 28. Since Pakistan’s strategic policies on Afghanistan have largely been shaped by the army establishment, is the  establishment  ready to accept Karzai as some one who Pakistan can do business with in the post-US Afghanistan? There appears to be many reasons which have left Pakistan with little choice but to work with Karzai and accept him in his place possibly after the US forces have long gone from Afghanistan. Pakistan wants to see its backed Taliban co-opted as well in any possible government. Pakistan has b...

In defense of Pakhtun nationalism in Pakistan & Afghanistan: By Jan Assakzai

   (www.pashtunforums.com)   & (Frontier Post July 19) Some pro-Taliban writers have said on the Internet media that Pakhtun nationalism as a political movement is against Islam that nationalist leadership both in Pakistan and Afghanistan do not enjoy the backing of the people and that they are a small clique who are western stooges whereas Pakhtuns are following political Islamists. But this discourse refutes that Pakhtun nationalism is anti-Islam and argues that Pakhtun nationalism is not only alive in Pakistan but also thriving in Afghanistan and is the only guarantee in the long run that can help prevent mayhem in both countries and the repeat of Sept 11. Pakhtun nationalism as political ideology despite its shortcomings has always been there on both sides of the Durand Line. However, there might be some differences in emphasis and scope. Another distinction is that one may be a political Islamist, not a nationalist or communist but may take national...

Balochistan sleepwalking into Pakhtun-Baloch strife: By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 16) The situation in Balochistan is deteriorating not by months but by weeks and days. The two major ethnic groups, the Pakhtuns and Balochs, are on the path of ethnic confrontation if the downward slide in relations between the two communities is not reversed. Besides, other fissures that are just bubbling below the surface, the new dynamic has the potential to simply make the situation spiral out of control for the federal authorities. The ties between the two communities are hostage to radical groups like the BLA, criminal gangs and kidnapping mafia that mostly get patronage from certain powerful Baloch elite. The first underlying dynamic for potential Pakhtun-Baloch strife, is the targeted killings. Balochistan’s targeted killings have claimed over 500 lives in the past two years. The Baloch extremists only targeted ethnic Punjabis. But now Pakhtuns have ended up on the Baloch militants hit list. The recent targeted killing of Khuram Shezad Yousufz...

7/7 bombing: British Pakistanis’ lurch to radicalism: By Jan Assakzai

  (The Frontier Post July 13) Britain marked the fifth death anniversary of 52 innocent people who lost their lives in the 7th July 2005 London bombings, also known as 7/7. A series of coordinated suicide attacks on London’s public transport system during the morning rush hour led to mayhem. The bombings were carried out by four Muslim men. Three were of British Pakistani origin and one of British Jamaican descent. At 08:50, three bombs exploded within fifty seconds of each other on three London Underground trains, a fourth exploding an hour later at 09:47 on a double-decker bus in Tavistock Square. The 7/7 incident put the Muslim community particularly the British Pakistanis on the spot. Since then the British Pakistani community has been grappled with many questions. They discovered that not only, many suspected, there is “an enemy within” - but that its nature is highly complex. Mohammed Sidique Khan (the ring leader of the bombers) exemplifies that complexity. ...

Terrorism: Incoherent policy doomed to failure : Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 14) The recent blasts in Mohmand killing over 100 people once again forcefully reminded the gravity of the militant threat the country is facing. In Punjab militant network has assumed alarming proportion yet the political and the army leadership have so far failed to devise a strategy to deal with the menace head on. So far the actions is more confined to inconsistent police raids. On the other hand, some politicians are calling for talks with the Taliban militants apparently taking the cue from the Afghan government’s move to talk to the Taliban. The likes of Imran Khan and Munawar Hassan forget to see that these militants are fighting against their own people: The Mohmand blasts and Data Darbar attacks were twin cases in point. Two main theses are vying in the Pakistani debate over militancy. A section of politicians, media and think tanks wrongly believe that Pakistan is fighting the war of the US. Some have even gone to the extent of asking for a pri...