Iran: A spoiler or saviour in Afghanistan? By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 26)

The Kabul Conference paved way for the need to seek deeper regional cooperation in bringing peace and stability to Afghanistan. Particularly the role of neighbouring countries like Pakistan, Iran and India have become all the most crucial to the US effort to successfully complete its draw down by 2014 and leave behind a relatively stable government. Iran has most levers in Afghanistan after Pakistan. For Iran, Afghanistan has always been important and its value grew manifold when the US-led coalition launched attack on the Taliban regime in 2001. This is why it has maintained an effective leverage in the country. From Tehran’s point of view, Afghanistan’s western part constitutes its "near abroad". In other words, Afghanistan’s western area falls within Iran’s sphere of influence.Tehran has focused extensively on Herat, Farah and Nimruz for its economic, social and educational efforts. Iran recently held a high profile cultural conference in Tehran with many Afghan intellectuals, poets and cultural figures in attendance, with the aim what Tehran calls the promotion of linguistic and cultural relations between the two countries. But these efforts are part of Iran’s quest to create a Persian "speaking world" comprising Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan in particular. For Tehran, Afghanistan is a neighbouring Persian country. Traditionally, Tehran has always retained its influence in Afghanistan through its proxies within the elements of Shia and other non-Pakhtun minority groups to maintain influence in Afghanistan. Iran is the only regional power that has an extensive reach to preserve its interest: operating in countries like Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, Pakistan, Central Asia and Caucasus region mostly through proxies. It controls strategic Strait of Hormuz through which flows chunk of world’s oil supply. However, with the arrival of the US forces in Afghanistan, Tehran slightly altered its preference and started supporting almost all those groups who were opposed to the US troops’ presence in Afghanistan regardless of their sect and ethnicity. Iran has bolstered elements of the Taliban, besides, break away Hizb-e-Islami operatives, and also provided exit through Iranian territory to al-Qaeda activists from Iraq en route to Afghanistan and Pakistan. During the US forces’ presence in Afghanistan, Tehran’s role should be seen in the context of broader dynamic of its relations with the US which include issues like nuclear programme, Iraq and Middle East. Tehran has tried to make the going difficult for the US in Afghanistan to ensure it is bogged down in the country. By creating hurdles for the US in Afghanistan, the sole aim of Tehran is to strengthen its bargaining position in any possible US-Tehran talks. So comes its leverage over Washington in Iraq through its proxy Shia groups. The over arching goal of Tehran is to ultimately force Washington to accept Iran as regional power in the Persian Gulf with iron-clad security guarantees for clerical regime. The realignment of the US and Pakistan over Afghanistan has pushed Tehran to play a proactive role in Afghanistan. Remove the US forces from the equation, Tehran would not want to see Afghanistan returning to the Taliban’s hands as in such a scenario, Islamabad would simply checkmate the Iranian influence in Afghanistan. Tehran cannot match Pakistan in latter's leverage over the elements of the Taliban linguistically, ethnically and religiously. Practically Iran has weaker intelligence assets in the Taliban ranks rendering the Taliban unpredictable, and non transparent in terms of strategy and tactics thus loosing edge to Islamabad. This is one of the reasons that Tehran has started to position itself in Afghanistan to prevent the dominance of Pakistan's proxy - the elements of the Afghan Taliban. Iran’s ultimate self-interest in Afghanistan is to keep Kabul under its sway. The new fear is not misplaced that Afghanistan may become a battle ground for inter-Iranian and Pakistani sectarian proxy contest that might get underway. Because recently Tehran openly blamed Pakistan for its alleged involvement in July 18 bombing in Iran, besides, the US, though both Islamabad and Washington denied the Iranian allegations of their involvement in July 18 suicide bombing. Jundullah has been waging an insurgency for years in the remote Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran, a lawless area where smuggling and banditry are rife. The group claimed responsibly for July 18 bombing in Zahidan which killed at least 27 people. The group says it is fighting for the rights of the mainly Sunni ethnic Balochi minority, which it says suffers discrimination at the hands of Iran's Shiite's leadership. Iran has accused the group of links to al-Qaeda, but experts say no evidence of such a link has been found. Since Tehran has a proxy influence within the elements of Pakistani Shia population and Pakistan, according to Tehran, is sponsoring Sunni proxy element in Iran, it may lead to a new wave of funding and sponsoring proxy wars between Shias and Sunnis in Pakistan and Iran as well as in Afghanistan. July 18 bombing has caused deterioration in Tehran-Islamabad relations thus has by default dissipated Iran’s quest for any possible common ground between the two countries on Afghanistan at least for the time being. As far as Karzai government is concerned, it has a big challenge to extend coherent and countrywide strategy to the Iranian zone of influence in western Afghanistan. As Afghanistan’s inherent political, economical and military vulnerability ties the hands of any Afghan President, it also constraints Karzai putting him in a least envious position vis a vis the influence of domineering neighbours like Iran. The best Karzai can do is not to offend the sensibilities and interest of Tehran in Afghanistan (even if that entails taking bruises and some time very bloody nose from Iran) while trying to keep a lid on its influence. That said, from grand strategic perspective, Tehran’s role is closely worth monitoring in Iraq as the US draw down has started. Following the US-led UN sanctions on Iran, Tehran has yet to effectively respond to strengthened US bargaining position due to getting support from China and Russia for sanctions. Washington also very well understands the influence of Iran in Afghanistan and so its vulnerability. This is why Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the sideline of recently concluded Kabul Conference initiated contacts with Tehran through interlocutors to seek its cooperation on Afghanistan in the post US withdrawal scenario. Iran knows that vulnerable points of the US is Afghanistan and Iraq. Recently, Tehran has issued stern statements against the US presence in Afghanistan declaring Afghanistan likely become a Vietnam for the US. It is not yet clear if these rhetorics are sign of new wrecking stance or bargaining stance. However, if Iran chooses Afghanistan in the post-sanction environment to even with the US or Pakistan, peace and stability will remain elusive in the country for years. This is why Iran’s role in the future stability of Afghanistan is critical. janassakzai200@gmail.com