Kabul Conference: A chance to fine tune US strategy: By Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post July 21)

The Kabul Conference is precursor to certain new signs of movements in the US effort in Afghanistan. Though they could not be depicted as policy shift as yet when it comes to the US strategy and its drawdown deadline. The US administration is in hurry to see signs of progress in Afghanistan so that it can conclude its withdrawal smoothly. There are few signs, however. The Republicans have come hard on the Obama administration that it is not fully committed to Afghanistan project and that its drawndown timetable is more driven by 2012 presidential elections than the progress on the ground. They believe that the deadline is tantamount to handing over a victory to the Taliban in a plate. They also contend that the Obama Administration should recalibrate drawdown deadline. The Iraqi withdrawal is all poised to start in days and there are plans that around 50,000 troops might stay behind and if needed they can play a combat role as well. Pentagon is increasingly discussing if Iraq example can be replicated in Afghanistan after 2011 (In other words) leaving behind a considerable force with potential to play combat role as well, should need be. On the military strategy, the focus remains on securing population centres, improving governance, putting pressure on the Taliban’s logistical supply lines and interrupting their plans. Though the strategy has not been fine tuned with new Gen Petraeus in charge, there is a small sign of progress. The elite police force trained by the US special forces, have shown some improved progress in Kandahar raising a hope for the much needed progress on training the Afghan security forces and the police who will be handed over the task of security by the US/NATO forces. The third is the concept of community police that Gen Petraeus has got the consent of President Karzai for. Although Karzai was concerned for obvious reasons, he agreed with the new structure of the police provided that it will be run, paid and uniformed by the Afghan Interior Ministry. Despite the shortcomings and potential long-term consequences of the imitative, the community policing is believed to be the best short-term tactic that can ensure the protection of villages as they would have more knowledge of the Taliban’s tactics locally, and can help protect the people from the threat and intimidation of the Taliban. However, the effectiveness of the tactic is yet to be seen. The fourth dynamic is: Pakistan has deepened its role in Afghanistan but it has got murkier as well. Islamabad has initiated talks with its proxy Haqqani network to broker a deal with Afghan government. It has also agreed to train Afghan army officers and agreed to extradite Mullah Baradar to Afghanistan apparently to facilitate any talks with the Afghan Taliban. On the other hand, the early hopes of the US that Pakistan will help with intelligence on the Taliban is not yet forthcoming. The other irritant between the US and Pakistan is the role of some elements of the Taliban particularly Haqqani network, which Washington believes is allied with the al-Qaeda, but is Pakistan’s best bargaining chip in the post-US Afghanistan scenario. Washington is also concerned about the safe haven of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in North Waziristan whereas Pakistan is reluctant to take on the militants. That said, all these could not be blown out of proportion. The US is dependent on Pakistan for its successful conclusion in Afghanistan hence getting closer to Islamabad is the only option Washington has got. A situation that is likely to further frustrate India. Iran has suggested a regional solution though it could be different thing to different people. However, Tehran is definitely in pursuit of an increased role in Afghanistan. Recently it held a cultural event in Tehran for the promotion of Persian language in the region including Afghanistan. Tehran is equally controlling important levers in Afghanistan: ethno-linguistic groups. For Iran, Tehran will be linking any accommodation of the US interest on Afghanistan with other strategic dynamic of its relations with Washington including Iraq, nuclear issue and Middle East. Turkey and Saudi Arabia will not only be dealing with Pakistan and Afghanistan but also with Washington as the US needs the help particularly of Turkey. Turkey being an important Muslim country has unique position to help out the US on Afghanistan. It has influence with Iran and Pakistan. The Russians and Indians have shared interest on Afghanistan. Their self interest would not go unnoticed in the Kabul Conference. The Kabul Conference is an opportunity for the US to fine tune its strategy on Afghanistan. The Kabul Conference is perhaps the best chance Washington has to assure its demotivated allies, Afghan people and Afghanistan’s neighbours that all is not lost in Afghanistan and it can salvage the situation no matter how least tractable it seems. janassakzai200@gmail.com