What China is after in Afghanistan?

Is Afghanistan to emerge a new proxy battleground in Post Quad US-China strategic rivalry? 

Pakistan, China & Afghan FM's conference hope for an Afghan settlement.

Jan Achakzai 

The Foreign Ministers of Pakistan, China, and Afghanistan conference  reiterated the political solution and emphasized sustainable peace in Afghanistan comes after 44 percent completion of the US troops withdrawal from the country as per the Pentagon handout. The strategic  Bagram base is about to be handed over to Afghan forces. On the other hand, the Taliban spring offensive is in full swing and they have come close to urban centers from across Afghanistan. The efforts and possible consensus for Intra Afghan dialogue and any potential settlement are moving at a snail pace while the mounting gains on the battlefield are making it hard for the Taliban to give in and   compromise politically. 

What exactly is at stake for China and Pakistan to collaborate is a combination of factors that worries Beijing and Islamabad involving the neighbor, i.e. Afghanistan. 

Worried Beijing 

The concerns are both strategic and economic: Beijing is worried that after the US withdrawal a permissive environment will allow Chinese specific militants to have space and mount attacks against mainland China; It is also worried that among the Taliban, the US can hire mercenaries to be used against Xinjiang as the Taliban and US converge ideologically  and politically–respectively– on alleged religious persecution in Xinjiang. 2 America can also use Xinjiang focused terrorists, ie the US recently removed terrorist designation on ETIM under Trump administration which is a terrorist group as per China's threat perception; it also has to shoulder more Afghan burden in terms of counter-terrorism,  economic and political cost versus its past free-rider position when the US was in Afghanistan; for Beijing, equally important concerns are: Threats of civil war will make exploitation of Afghan mineral resources and connectivity prospects push further away. Hence it makes sense for China to collaborate with Pakistan and get actively involved in post-US Afghanistan.

Pakistan concerned 

Similarly, Pakistan has to preempt the following scenario: civil war and domestic implosion will lead to an exodus of refugees, terrorism spell over, renewed phase of instability in border regions and hinterland, and doomed prospects of connectivity to Central Asia en route to Afghanistan, besides, a zero-sum geopolitical game with India through proxy warfare. The issue at its core  is  simple–India has established strategic depth in post 9/11 Afghanistan against Pakistan since it has been operating out of  Kandhar BLA's HQ and out of Nangarhar the TTP and ISIS sanctuaries with the active support of NDS as a result indirect warfare  is raging– below the threshold of war–in Balochistan and part of KP to keep Pakistan on the boil and undermine CPEC by extension China's BRI project. 

India spoiler

For the first time, India feels, though, its equities and implicit suzerainty over Kabul is threatened,  incentivizing a potential spoiling role i.e. preempt Afghan settlement and integration of Taliban in the government in Kabul. Additionally, it  buoyed by the new QUAD security architecture and its partnership with the US for a role against China and specifically to offset Ladakh setback, it has the perfect opportunity to work with the US in any potential role in Xinjiang instability. 

But here is what Pakistan offers–A political settlement can lead to detente with Delhi in Afghanistan as Islamabad is prepared for a quid pro quo: recognize legitimate Indian political influence through economic levers in Afghanistan if Dehli respects Pakistan's security and strategic concerns in Afghanistan, ie, not using Afghan soil against Pakistan through BLA, TTP, and other groups and undermining its national security in Balochistan and ex FATA, thus allowing a quite western border. 

This is why Islamabad seeks political settlement as opposed to total Taliban control, and additionally, it will seek the third party i.e. the international community's guarantee against India's good behavior not using Afghanistan against Pakistan. Consequently, Islamabad would have no reason to seek strategic depth against Delhi in Afghanistan.

Also, Islamabad loathes any idea of the repeat of 1990 when the US retrenched and left Afghanistan at the mercy of its neighbors: no diplomatic, economic and strategic engagement made Afghanistan a bone to Al-Qaeda and India a geopolitical gift to Iran as well. Pakistan was left to face refugees, terrorism, instability and economic cost and above all faced a reverse of "strategic depth" ie, Kalashinkow culture, heroin, and ethnic strife. 

Kabul govt hurdle in way of peace?  

The Ghani regime has last chance to put aside its belligerence and meaningfully engage the Taliban in power-sharing agreement and discontinue the shenanigans of the likes of Amrullah Saleh and NSA Hamdullah Muhib– as they are the least acceptable interlocutors to mend fences with the Taliban or Pakistan. Their daily diatribe is nothing but to send a message that the Ghani govt wants everything but peace. Without the support of the international community and Pakistan which is opposed to Kabul's take over by the Taliban, he can not survive in his palace for a day. That Ghani and his clique are on life support regardless of their rhetoric, they should be more than willing to  reconcile as such. So it is better to take upon this opportunity that Pakistan and China in particular are offering by not throwing a spanner  in intra-Afghan dialogue and facilitate final settlement. If there is no settlement, to secure its security interests in Afghanistan, then Islamabad will be forced to hedge Taliban against India and its proxy regime in Afghanistan whereas India will hedge BLA, TTP ISIS, and other outfits. 

For Islamabad–and equally, China– stability, and peace in the mainland is a top priority no matter whatever the price it has to pay. Now the ball is in India's court: it enters into a detente in Afghanistan with Pakistan reaping dividends of sustainable peace or keep playing spoiler and put up with  Pakistan challenging its implicit suzerainty over Kabul.