Saudi-Pakistan reset: what changed?

US moves on Iran & India alter Pakistan, Saudi calculus

Jan Achakzai 

A reset in relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has been witnessed after many divergences– over a period of one year– as Prime Minister Imran Khan is back in KSA. 

Geo-political compulsions have their own irrational logic to force changes in naunaces and postures of a country. This is what is happening with calculus of the KSA. 

1. Foremost issue is Iran.  Tehran is unstoppable to go nuclear. The dynamic is:  It knows the fate of Iraq, Libya and Ukraine who were punished without credible deterrence. So without WMD, no insurance for survival. Though Israel is only a strategic threat to Iranian intention and  effort to  get nuclear capability which will unlikely deter Tehran.  Returning to  JCPOA by Tehran & US, suit both countries as a convenience at this stage–relief from sanctions and draw a curtain on neo-conservative ideas of regime change, respectively. 

Anyway, inking any agreement with the US means nothing as either party can withdraw as proved by Trump Admin which backtracked from JCPOA, two years ago. 

Thus this assessment meaningfully is  impacting the strategic calculus of the KSA. And this is where Pakistan can help if the KSA seeks going nuclear, Islamabad may be  handy to assist though this potential  convergence may never be acknowledged. 

2. The KSA and the entire Middle East are  learning to adjust with the new geo-political reality: the US steady  retrenchment from the region. Thus Riyadh is on a new diplomatic offensive to offset any loss in security and strategic realms. 

3. Given this dynamic, the KSA has already started negotiations with Syria, engaged Turkey, established some communication with Israel towards some degree of normalization, rehabilitated  ties with Qatar, and attempted to resolve the intractable Yemen crisis by militarily disengaging. Now the KSA  and Pakistan relations are put back on track. 

4. From broader perspective, why the KSA has normalized its relations with Pakistan is because here is the list of how and where Pakistan impacts Riyadh's geo-political/strategic interests: Afghanistan; India; Muslim world; Nuclear technology; Internal security of Royals; Iran; US South Asia and West Asia  policy;  Indian Ocean  Maritime route; OIC; China; Porxy warsfares; GCC stability; Terrorism;  and BRI/CPEC. 

5. Also important this new warmth for Riyadh and Islamabad, is for another reason: the KSA has joined UAE for the expected  big regional breakthrough–a lot of hard work, sweat and time invested went into—culmination of months of preparation, ie, possible India-Pakistan detente. It may not be immediately announced due to public backlash. Yet Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qaurashi has for the first time admitted publicly "back channel talks'' between India and Pakistan at intel levels. Had there been  no progress, he would  not have admitted it, in the first place. 

But both governments, ie, India and Pakistan, have been avoiding any sudden progress, after a prolonged back channel, as a breakthrough will be lost without taking public opinions and relevant constituencies of the two respective countries on board. 

Pakistan has already sought "strategic pause" in relations with India so that it can focus on domestic issues, particularly its weak economy and Afghanistan imbroglio. Also it may be a "respite" for US pressure on the Afghan front and increasing Dehli-Washington nexus against China and resulting heat for Islamabad. 

6. Another operative  mechanism which is important for the execution of economic projects like $20 billion refinery project (the Saudi government already announced) has also been established after the summit:  Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood said that a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Prime Minister and the Crown Prince, which would lead to the establishment of a high-level Liaison Council between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. A "structured engagement plan" has been drawn up, he added. 

7. Saudi labor market and remittances are critical for Pakistan's economy. According to the Saudi Crown Prince, he will need ten million manpower over the next ten years to implement his vision, most of which will come from Pakistan which is great news for the latter's  market needs. 

But the evolving US geo-political posture in the region and beyond are largely driving the new nuanced understanding between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia which is mainly concerned with   Iran and India.