US-Iran rivalry and Afghanistan

The Frontier Post

Jan Assakzai

The United States has criticised Iran for helping Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan. It is not the first time that the US has blamed Iran for bolstering opposition groups in Afghanistan. Iran lies on the western border of Afghanistan, and is probably the second country after Pakistan that has considerable leverage in Afghanistan. Recently, Washington also accused Tehran of providing safe passage to al-Qaeda operatives to crossing Iranian territory into Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, Iran has ethnic, sectarian , cultural and linguistic levers and it is going to be a dominant player in the post-US Afghanistan. It is also not surprising if Iran is creating problems for the United States in Afghanistan. Any role Iran is playing in Afghanistan has to be understood in the larger context of its enmity with the US. What Iran ultimately wants from the US is security guarantees for its survival and thus acceptance as a the sole regional power in the Persian Gulf region. To achieve this end, Iran is hell bent to create problems for the US on many fronts. It wants to see the US forces bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan to delay the US draw down time tables. It has huge leverage over the US in Iraq at least in the short term. The Shia block in Iraq is leaning too much on Iran. Tehran has influence over the Shia elements in Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and far flung Egypt. It’s influence is right on the borders of Israel through its proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. Iran has also considerable influence in Central Asian states and in Pakistan over latter’s Shia minority population. Tehran is a huge military power in the whole of Persian Gulf countries dominating the Arab states militarily and has a virtual control of Strait of Hormuz through which most of the world’s oil flows. Iran’s nuclear programme is seen as an attempt by Tehran to ensure its security in case it fails to reach an agreement with the United States of America. For Washington, Middle East is its core geo-political arena. It does not want a single country to control oil reserves and thus become too much powerful not only in the region but also in the rest of the world. America does not want to see oil supply in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted affecting the world’s economic and financial stability and its own nascent economic recovery. It wants to see a balance between the Arab and Persian Iran. Arab-Iran balance came crushing when the US invaded Iraq in 2003 and removed Saddam Husain’s regime. For the time being, the US is trying to check pro-Iranian Shia coalition in Iraq to share power with Sunnis minority - being backed by Saudi Arabia - in order to check Shia coalition, by extension of Iranian influence in the country. The US, in short term, does not want to stay in Iraq but also does not want to see Iraq completely dominated by Iran after so much investment in money and blood. On the other hand, Iran would never allow Iraq to become a threat to its security thus would leave no stone unturned in keeping the country weak. The US is between the devil and the deep sea when it comes to dealing with Iran. For the time being, it is in no position to militarily browbeat Iran - when it has two active war theaters i.e., Afghanistan and Iraq. Any sanctions are not going to bite Iran as Russia and China are unlikely to agree for a ban on Iran’s gasoline imports and its oil exports - only sanctions with the teeth that can bite Iran and force Tehran to give up its nuclear programme. Iran at the moment enjoys upper hand compared to the United States. Hence, Iran’s possible role in bolstering elements of Taliban at a time when the US is preparing for a major military offensive in the heartland of Taliban insurgents - Kandahar - is something expected. janassakzai200@gmail.com