Russian concerns for post US Afghanistan- Jan Assakzai

(The Frontier Post)

Russia is concerned at the recently held Jirga for reconciliation and integration in Kabul (June 2-4) for proposing to co-opt Taliban in any future political setup in the post US Afghanistan. The Jirga gave a mandate to Afghan President Karzai to negotiate with the Taliban including its top leadership. Afghanistan is very important in Russian foreign policy. It borders Russia’s near abroad. Moscow wants to ensure that it does not deal with any challenges in the wake of the US forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. Thus Moscow has started working on securing its interest in the country. On the other hand, the US-Pakistani-Saudi-Turkish axis is seeking, to one degree or another, to facilitate the political accommodation of Taliban and other insurgent groups into the regime in Kabul—- the very groups Moscow is harbouring deep concerns about. Historically, Russia in order to prevent the dominance of Pakistan backed Mujahideen and later Taliban in Afghanistan, was supporting largely Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic minorities under the umbrella of Northern Alliance. Northern Alliance was acting as proxy not only for Russia but also for Iran and India. The Russian interest was to counter balance any possible US influence in Afghanistan. At time when the US draw-down timetable 2011 gets nearer, Russia has started expressing its major concerns. First short-term. Second long-term. Short-term concern for Moscow is that there is no effective government that is supported by the “majority” of the Afghan people. Secondly, ISAF/NATO forces do not control the whole of Afghanistan. And thirdly, drug trafficking as ninety per cent of drugs emanate from Afghanistan into the world market, gives Russia sleep-less nights. For Moscow, any idea of co-opting Taliban in the future government is a anathema. Moscow’s painful—and recent—memories of Chechen militancy have given rise to deep-seated fears about militancy along its periphery. It was the Taliban in Afghanistan that was the only “regime” to recognize Chechen “independence”. More important though, the Russians have always been worried about the spillover of militancy from Afghanistan in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, a more immediate threat given the shared borders. Hence Moscow is concerned over the prospects that Taliban might be incorporated in the next government. In other words, yesterday’s terrorists become tomorrow’s leaders. For Russia, it is a step too far. Moscow is particularly alarmed at the prospect of incorporating the leadership core of Taliban.  It may have no problem with lower ranking Taliban integration with the government as Russia did itself with the Chechen fighters in Chechnya . Although, Russia like other counties—-the US, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia in particular, believes the core of the matter is political settlement to the Taliban insurgency, it wants a dominant position for those ethnic groups that Moscow has leverage over.  It is like India, can hardly do business with Pakistan backed Pakhtun Taliban. This is why Moscow believes that a government should be “respected” by “majority” of Afghans (incorporating its proxies) if not “obeyed”. Read under the line, it is even if a section of Taliban are not prepared to back any future set-up, Moscow is fine with such eventuality. The long-term concern for Russia is that Afghanistan has to sustain itself economically and socially if it has to operate as a peaceful country. This is not going to happen without the support of international community. Hence, Moscow proposes a consortium of these countries to back the efforts of Afghan-led economic and social re-development in the post US Afghanistan. Drug is both long-term and the sort-term concern for Moscow. Around 90 per cent of the drugs in the world market comes from Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s northern route at Afghan- Tajikistan border leads to Moscow, and from Moscow, it goes to Germany, France and UK. Another drug trafficking route is western route that goes into Iran. From Russia’s point of view, the eastern route goes into Pakistan where in tribal areas, part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and northern Balochistan, the state’s writ is weak and the trade finances al-Qaeda terrorists and its allies. Russia is concerned that coupled with drug trafficking through Afghanistan’s eastern route, is the militants’ sanctuaries in FATA. It believes FATA-based militants are not only threat to Pakistan, neighbouring countries including Russia but also to the world and as far off as New York. For Moscow the heart of the issue is transnational militancy, (which is also the central threat of the common Russian, Iranian and Indian self-interest in Afghanistan). Russia believes that Islamabad has long cultivated militancy in the Pakhtun regions on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border and that Islamabad keeps these groups on hand as leverage against New Delhi (as it was from these groups that the 2008 Mumbai attacks originated). But Russia is facing a big challenge in Afghanistan. It has to be prepared to deal with American-Pakistan-Saudi-and Turkish understanding over Afghanistan. This coalition has huge influence in Afghanistan. This is why India is trying not to be left out and has stated directly dealing with Pakistan by engaging Islamabad in new round of talks. And just as Russia, Iran and India found themselves seeking a common strategy in the 1990s in the wake of Afghanistan’s descent into civil war, so too, Russia has now joined these countries seeking to set themselves up as partners in their current attempts to influence the situation in Afghanistan. However, in the short-term, Russia benefits as well from having US bogged down in Afghanistan as it has a benefit of the US distraction, to further consolidate its grip over near abroad and aggressively project its interest in Eastern and Western Europe. The US is, for the moment, stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq. Nonetheless, in finding any solution to the Taliban insurgency, the Afghan government and the US and its allies cannot ignore the interest of a rising Russia. The only challenge for them is how to limit Russian influence in the post US Afghanistan. janassakzai200@gmail.com