Anti-TTP gains not consolidated yet
The Frontier Post
Jan Assakzai
The army’s operations in in Swat , Malakand, South Wazristan and Orakzai seem to have weakened the TTP. With the army hot on the heels of the TTP, the incidents of suicide bombings and terrorism have subsided in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, it does not suggest the the TTP is finished, or its operational ability crippled or it will not attempt to stage a come back in future.
Over the 9 months or so, the TTP seems to have lost two important sanctuaries e.g Swat and South Wazirstan. It has been under pressure in Orakzai Agency. The army is also involved in what it calls stabilisation operations in Upper Orakzai.
However, the TTP’s strategy in the face of these operation is well known. It tries to lie low, melts away or hide in rural areas where the writ of the state is weak.
The obvious sanctuary now is North Waziristan.The TTP following the army’s operation in South Wazristan moved into North Wazristan. It is estimated that their strength is around 10,000 to 15,000 strong men. Punjabi and Kashmir militants are also believed to be linked with the TTP besides, the remnants of central Asian outfits including Uzbeks.
There were reports in the newspapers that the TTP has started vacating its positions in the North Waziristan as they feel threatened on the face of imminent military operation.
But the accuracy of those reports are extremely doubtful:
First, It could be an attempt by Pakistan’s “friendly” Taliban allay Gul Bahadur to stave off the army’s military operation.
Second, the TTP could trickle back into South Waziristan- it is a home territory for the TTP. However, since army is in control of the strategic positions and infrastructure centers in South Waziristan, it is unlikely they would go unnoticed.
Third, the TTP - allied with al Qaeda has been helping out Afghan Taliban- may cross border into Afghanistan but it is yet to be independently conformed if they have left North Waziristan. For the area is isolated and condoned off by the army.
Militants linked with Haqqani network were also reported to have moved out from North Waziristan and crossed into Afghanistan.However, the accuracy of these statements are also highly doubtful: it could be an attempt by Pakistan to blunt US pressure being applied on Islamabad for taking action against militants in North Wazirstan.
North Wazristan is the least accessible area. Supposing militants have crossed into Afghanistan, the Agency is bordering Afghanistan, they might return tomorrow.
Notwithstanding, any guarantees that the army might have sought from its “friendly” Taliban commander allay Gul Bhadur in North Waziristan, it is probably the only place along Pakistan- Afghanistan border that serves as a strategic breathing and retreat place for not only the TTP but also for the al Qeada and Afghan Taliban. It is likely to be an impossible tasks to “distinguish” between “friendly” and “unfriendly” militants given the flux and fluid nature of militant landscape.
Without North Wazristan operation, there is a danger that gains against the TTP made else where, may be lost very soon. So the battle for North Waziristan is still as essential as it was yesterday.
Next comes the Orakzai Agency. The army has declared its victory in the Agency but there are reports of militants still putting up resistance particularly in the Upper Orakzai where the terrain is favourable to the TTP. The Orakzai Agency is the only place that is not bordering Afghanistan and could be a possible sanctuary for remnants of the TTP fighters. Because it is sandwiched between Khyber and Kurram agencies and Peshawar, Nowshera, Kohat and Hangu districts, it makes easier for cross movements of militants from north to the south and to other settled areas.
It is second to South Wazristan that has seen the rise of a significant force of TTP in not too distant past. Given the level of resistance being put up by the TTP in Upper Orakzai, it seems now that the army’s victory claim made earlier was premature.
There are small valleys and some peaks are roughly 5000 feet high. A significant number of terrorists, including Central Asian Uzbeks, who fled from South Waziristan, have taken refuge in this agency.
Other significant TTP presence remain in central Kurram. Kurram is the second largest tribal region in the FATA. The agency has a significant Shia population and has been the scene of fierce sectarian clashes.
Troops are also engaged in in Mohmand agency. It is believed to be the prime choice of al Qaeda and other militants. Al-Zawahiri is married to a native of this agency and is thought to visit the agency frequently. Mohmand made the international headlines (June 11 2008) when a U.S. air strike struck a Frontier Corps outpost and killed 11 army personnel including a mid-level officer.The Agency is yet to be purged of militants.
The army is on the trial of militants in Khyber Agency particularly Tirah region.Tirah is also an area where the government has been trying to cut down on poppy cultivation in the past .The area has a history of kidnapping and feuds.
There is also a small Sikh community who are mainly involved in trading. Tirah is part of Khyber agency which contains the crucial Khyber Pass, one of the most important roads across the Afghan-Pakistani frontier. It is the main artery connecting Peshawar to Kabul and passes through the border town of Torkham. It is the most crucial logistical route for NATO and the US forces in Afghanistan.
Because of this artery, Khyber is the most developed agency in the tribal belt. But it has been home to at least three Taliban factions challenging the writ of the government.
A militant group Laskhar-Islam is said to have offered talks with government. Unfortunately, it is not unusual for the government to negotiate away the writ of state in these agencies. The Laskhar-Islam is believed to be more of criminal gang than offshoot of a militant TTP brand. Yet it chooses alliance on the basis of who wins in Khyber Agency.
Earlier, there were reports that militants have sought refuge in the FR Peshawar region. The number of IDPs from this area has reportedly increased to nearly 50,000 showing the growing difficulties of the people due to activity of militants.
As far as Swat is concerned, the situation is stabilising. Yet there are reports of targeted killings by low lying militants.
Why militants trickle back into the cleared areas is mainly due to the army’s operational model. Once the army clears militants, it moves on. leaving behind a small contingent of soldiers to provide security as the area residents return home, among whom, invariably, are militants who continue to carry out attacks against civilian and government targets (although, at a slower and typically less damaging pace). In this environment, the military works to build up a civil government that can control the town on its own without the military providing security.
The result is that the primary population centers and transportation infrastructure remain under the control of the government, while militants maintain a presence in the more rural areas, where they can regroup, gather their strength and push back once the military leaves.
Thus the most important lesson one can learn is that it is the establishment of civil authority and long-term security that is essential in consolidating and sustaining what has been initially achieved through military force.
Perhaps that is the only way to consolidate the army’s gains against the militants and preventing the TTP from gaining operational ability, challenging the writ of the government in the cleared areas and posing threat to people and other targets.
The army needs to supplement the short term military operations with the long terms strategy: establishment of effective civilian authority and re-development of the cleared areas.
janassakzai200@gmail.com
The army’s operations in in Swat , Malakand, South Wazristan and Orakzai seem to have weakened the TTP. With the army hot on the heels of the TTP, the incidents of suicide bombings and terrorism have subsided in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, it does not suggest the the TTP is finished, or its operational ability crippled or it will not attempt to stage a come back in future.
Over the 9 months or so, the TTP seems to have lost two important sanctuaries e.g Swat and South Wazirstan. It has been under pressure in Orakzai Agency. The army is also involved in what it calls stabilisation operations in Upper Orakzai.
However, the TTP’s strategy in the face of these operation is well known. It tries to lie low, melts away or hide in rural areas where the writ of the state is weak.
The obvious sanctuary now is North Waziristan.The TTP following the army’s operation in South Wazristan moved into North Wazristan. It is estimated that their strength is around 10,000 to 15,000 strong men. Punjabi and Kashmir militants are also believed to be linked with the TTP besides, the remnants of central Asian outfits including Uzbeks.
There were reports in the newspapers that the TTP has started vacating its positions in the North Waziristan as they feel threatened on the face of imminent military operation.
But the accuracy of those reports are extremely doubtful:
First, It could be an attempt by Pakistan’s “friendly” Taliban allay Gul Bahadur to stave off the army’s military operation.
Second, the TTP could trickle back into South Waziristan- it is a home territory for the TTP. However, since army is in control of the strategic positions and infrastructure centers in South Waziristan, it is unlikely they would go unnoticed.
Third, the TTP - allied with al Qaeda has been helping out Afghan Taliban- may cross border into Afghanistan but it is yet to be independently conformed if they have left North Waziristan. For the area is isolated and condoned off by the army.
Militants linked with Haqqani network were also reported to have moved out from North Waziristan and crossed into Afghanistan.However, the accuracy of these statements are also highly doubtful: it could be an attempt by Pakistan to blunt US pressure being applied on Islamabad for taking action against militants in North Wazirstan.
North Wazristan is the least accessible area. Supposing militants have crossed into Afghanistan, the Agency is bordering Afghanistan, they might return tomorrow.
Notwithstanding, any guarantees that the army might have sought from its “friendly” Taliban commander allay Gul Bhadur in North Waziristan, it is probably the only place along Pakistan- Afghanistan border that serves as a strategic breathing and retreat place for not only the TTP but also for the al Qeada and Afghan Taliban. It is likely to be an impossible tasks to “distinguish” between “friendly” and “unfriendly” militants given the flux and fluid nature of militant landscape.
Without North Wazristan operation, there is a danger that gains against the TTP made else where, may be lost very soon. So the battle for North Waziristan is still as essential as it was yesterday.
Next comes the Orakzai Agency. The army has declared its victory in the Agency but there are reports of militants still putting up resistance particularly in the Upper Orakzai where the terrain is favourable to the TTP. The Orakzai Agency is the only place that is not bordering Afghanistan and could be a possible sanctuary for remnants of the TTP fighters. Because it is sandwiched between Khyber and Kurram agencies and Peshawar, Nowshera, Kohat and Hangu districts, it makes easier for cross movements of militants from north to the south and to other settled areas.
It is second to South Wazristan that has seen the rise of a significant force of TTP in not too distant past. Given the level of resistance being put up by the TTP in Upper Orakzai, it seems now that the army’s victory claim made earlier was premature.
There are small valleys and some peaks are roughly 5000 feet high. A significant number of terrorists, including Central Asian Uzbeks, who fled from South Waziristan, have taken refuge in this agency.
Other significant TTP presence remain in central Kurram. Kurram is the second largest tribal region in the FATA. The agency has a significant Shia population and has been the scene of fierce sectarian clashes.
Troops are also engaged in in Mohmand agency. It is believed to be the prime choice of al Qaeda and other militants. Al-Zawahiri is married to a native of this agency and is thought to visit the agency frequently. Mohmand made the international headlines (June 11 2008) when a U.S. air strike struck a Frontier Corps outpost and killed 11 army personnel including a mid-level officer.The Agency is yet to be purged of militants.
The army is on the trial of militants in Khyber Agency particularly Tirah region.Tirah is also an area where the government has been trying to cut down on poppy cultivation in the past .The area has a history of kidnapping and feuds.
There is also a small Sikh community who are mainly involved in trading. Tirah is part of Khyber agency which contains the crucial Khyber Pass, one of the most important roads across the Afghan-Pakistani frontier. It is the main artery connecting Peshawar to Kabul and passes through the border town of Torkham. It is the most crucial logistical route for NATO and the US forces in Afghanistan.
Because of this artery, Khyber is the most developed agency in the tribal belt. But it has been home to at least three Taliban factions challenging the writ of the government.
A militant group Laskhar-Islam is said to have offered talks with government. Unfortunately, it is not unusual for the government to negotiate away the writ of state in these agencies. The Laskhar-Islam is believed to be more of criminal gang than offshoot of a militant TTP brand. Yet it chooses alliance on the basis of who wins in Khyber Agency.
Earlier, there were reports that militants have sought refuge in the FR Peshawar region. The number of IDPs from this area has reportedly increased to nearly 50,000 showing the growing difficulties of the people due to activity of militants.
As far as Swat is concerned, the situation is stabilising. Yet there are reports of targeted killings by low lying militants.
Why militants trickle back into the cleared areas is mainly due to the army’s operational model. Once the army clears militants, it moves on. leaving behind a small contingent of soldiers to provide security as the area residents return home, among whom, invariably, are militants who continue to carry out attacks against civilian and government targets (although, at a slower and typically less damaging pace). In this environment, the military works to build up a civil government that can control the town on its own without the military providing security.
The result is that the primary population centers and transportation infrastructure remain under the control of the government, while militants maintain a presence in the more rural areas, where they can regroup, gather their strength and push back once the military leaves.
Thus the most important lesson one can learn is that it is the establishment of civil authority and long-term security that is essential in consolidating and sustaining what has been initially achieved through military force.
Perhaps that is the only way to consolidate the army’s gains against the militants and preventing the TTP from gaining operational ability, challenging the writ of the government in the cleared areas and posing threat to people and other targets.
The army needs to supplement the short term military operations with the long terms strategy: establishment of effective civilian authority and re-development of the cleared areas.
janassakzai200@gmail.com
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