Why Hazaras will loose in "Hazara Province"?

by Jan Assakzai

Following  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, there is  a new campaign for Hazara  province spearheaded by some Hazara politicians, Punjab-based political leaders and a section of Muhaji and Punjabi-dominated media outlets. They are clamouring that Hazaras  have a Turbala Dam reservoir so will have huge potential for a province carved out on  "administrative basis". But irrespective of their emotional verbosity,  Hazaras will eventually  loose  if they part ways with  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, if opted for Peshawar, through a possible  mechanism proposed below, Hazaras will hugely benefit and their  potential gain will outweigh any potential loss of autonomous Hazara province:  

First why Hazaras will  loose in Hazara province?

1. Economic arguments:

A. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has huge untapped  water resources which will have a big scope for   power generation and will dwarf what is being produced in today's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. if  ex-Federal Minister for Water and Power,  Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpaoe is to be believed,  it has a potential to produce 50,000 MW electricity that means huge  revenue and  Hazaras will be the  beneficiary as well.

B. The untapped water resources  have  the potential to irrigate at least 4 million acres (out of cultivable  6.55 million acres of land) with its total  area being nearly 24 million acres and irrigated area around 2 million acres benefiting Hazara division enormously.

C. There are  huge Oil and Gas deposits in  Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and their  commercial production has already started. With 18th Amendment recommending  that  royalty and excise duty on natural gas shall be paid to the provinces where the above natural resources are located, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be getting royalist and gas surcharge worth billions of rupees from the centre. The federal government will be paying  royalty on oil to the provincial government, as well; hence, people of Hazara will have their fingers in the pie.

D. Huge mineral reserves  have been found in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa including Gold. As such exploration and exploitation of these resources should fill in the coffers of provincial government if arrangements in the constitution is followed so obviously Hazaras will also share its income.

E. Hazaras will be worse off if they were to deprive themselves  of the economic mass potential of Pakhtuns's population-wider market- If peace to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were to return following a possible change in geo-political situation , there would  be a enormous opportunity for investors to invest.

F. Large population in a globalised world is an  asset rather than liability provided forward looking  pro-growth,  and investment policies are pursed by the host region or country. With Khyber Pakhtunkhwa having   potentially  vast labour market, its natural resources and an emerging vibrant middle class , it will attract national and international investment in energy and agriculture and other sectors. Benefits thus incurred,  will flow to  Hazara division as well. Besides, following the insurgency in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, thousands of Pakhtun expatriate have made their way to Gulf states, Europe and North America sending potentially millions of millions of dollars as remittances to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa further boosting its economy.

G. Hazaras are jubilant over the potential proceeds on account of hydel power generated in Turbala Dam- which generates 3478 MGW of electricity (Sources: WAPDA)-if they get a province. But their optimism is misplaced. The capacity of Turbala is diminishing hence its potential, besides environmental impact of Turbala and other potentially big dams, (Source: Finance Department Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2010). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's hydro-electricity  needs lie in more small dams.Though not enough, work is already afoot -an  official of  Irrigation Department of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Mohammad Ashfaq Khan said that "So far 15 small dams have been completed, seven are under construction. Detailed designs of 16 dams have been prepared. Feasibility study of 22 dams is complete- and that of 14 is under way. The pre-feasibility report of 38 new dams has been furnished while that of 11 more is under process," (Source: Dawn August 10, 2009). They will loose all their stakes in these projects in future in case they go for  "do it alone" strategy. 

H. The narrow economic-mass of Hazara population means less incentive for investment from the out side so they will loose out in terms of attracting investment opportunities. Their relatively small size of the population militate against their dream of a separate province.

2. Political-economy arguments against Hazara province:

firstly, resource-strapped Hazara province will be good for the elite of the community in terms of more perks and privileges, pump and show but will not help the ordinary masses of the Hazara region. 

Secondly, Many Pakhtuns are stunned as to how predominantly  Punjab-based political leadership was not prepared to give an identity to them whilst,on the other hand, they are suddenly generous to give a separate province to Hazaras. They  suspect that  it might be  the replay of the  typical policies of "Divide and Rule" exercised by the British Raj-further dividing Pakhtun areas. Hence, there might be a possible strong backlash of  Pakhtuns. The issue of whether ethnic Pakhtuns in Potential Hazara province will have their rights guaranteed, might provoke   a tug of war between the two communities benefiting no body except the opponents of Hazara-Pakhtun harmonious relations and mutual coexistence.

Thirdly, Any reference by the Hazara leadership to referendum on the issue will only open the past wounds of the partition when Pakhtun political leadership of the time was cheated by English through a dubious referendum (as per the pakhtun interpretation of  history)  hence will not contribute to the harmonious relationship,  

Fourth, though the traditional Pakhtun leadership over the past nearly 60 years, has only incurred the wrath of establishment for demanding more autonomy and 'say' in the federal political system, demand of Hazara province is an indication that they will also benefit by default if  Pakhtuns claw back some concessions from the  establishment, notwithstanding the Hazaras  have been the beneficiary through out this period as establishment was hell bent to contain alleged "secessionist" Pakhtun leadership whilst doling out perks and priviliages to Hazaras.

What  mechanism  can be made if  if Hazaras were to make some sort of arrangement with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?

A. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa  has to devolve powers in some ways: possible solution could be an elected  council for Hazara division that will give them more 'say' in their affairs. They can continue with their representation in the Peshawar Assembly. The best model could be Northern  Irland in the United Kingdom where it has an elected  council with first minister as its head, plus it sends elected representatives to Westminster Parliament in London. Such change might require amendment in the constitution for which consensus can  be developed if the two stake holders agree on. 

B. Abbotabad could be the administrative centre   so the common man should not need to walk to Peshawar for solving his/her problems.

C. According to their population size (18 per cent) a quota can be reserved in all jobs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.The same can be done in Hazara division for  ethnic Pakhtuns.

D. Following 18th Amendment, Governor would  be a figure head.The office  should alternate between the two communities.

E. A joint commission could resolve any complaints if arise.

F. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa should ensure they have at least one federal post reserved for representative of the  Hazara region.

G. In order to preserve the language and culture of Hazaras in Pakhtun areas,  and preserve and protect the language and culture of Pakhtuns in Hazara division, a possible solution could be: Hazara kid  can LEARN  Hindko as primary language in  schools in Pakhtun areas, with  the OPTION of Pakhto, English and Urdu as priority  languages. A   Pakhtun kid can  LEARN  Pakhto as primary language in Hazara division with the OPTION of  other  priority languages:  Hinkdo, English and  Urdu. Through this way Hindko speaking kids residing in Pakhtun areas will not loose their language and culture, and Pakhtun kids in Hindko-dominated areas will preserve Pakhto and their culture as well. In other word, forced  "Hazaranisation" of Pakhtuns and "Pakhtonisation"  of Hazaras will stop, unless voluntarily  accepted through integration and assimilation). It may sound idealistic, BUT make no mistake if Jews can resurrect a "dead" Hebrew language in the State of Israel, nothing is impossible  in the realm of language- provided there is a will and state patronage for recognising  legitimate   linguistic and cultural aspirations of communities. (The reason  I stress on language,  is because it is the  only vehicle to pass on the  cherished values and traditions of  forefathers to coming generations, as famous Pakhtun Poet Rehman Baba has rightly said" Kae Dae Baal Zabba Zadakawal Louii Kammal Daii, Khapala Zabba Herrawal Bea Kammali Da"- If it is a great skill  to learn others' language, it is unskillful to forget your language).

Through such possible mechanism, the concerns of Hazaras will be addressed and they will have more share in devolved Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. At the time when  march  towards decentralised federation is unstoppable, presumably devolved Khyber Pakhtunkhwa should be a potential magnet for growth in Pakistan. So,  for Hazaras,   prospects of material progress through a separate province/separatism is less likely. For them, generally the advantages of cooperation and  incorporation with devolved Khyber Pakhtunkhwa outweigh the disadvantages of loss of  proposed autonomous province: being a minority they would   benefit from access to wider markets, increased standard of living and undeterred participation in the central political system of Pakistan while remaining in Pakhtunkhwa. You can argue  that  Hazaras would not  like to miss the boat.

janassakzai100@gmail.com